Euro: A Good Short Whether Unlimited Bond Purchasing is Successful or Not


Seeking Alpha am 09.09.2012 – 42 mal gelesen.

By Nicholas Pardini:

While traders are excited about Draghi's promise of unconditional bond buying and the anticipation of QE3 has propelled the euro up, the long term economic consequences of this intervention is overwhelmingly bearish for the euro (FXE).

Despite rising stock prices, the European economy continues to slow. Manufacturing PMI's throughout the eurozone are below 50 and continuing to contract. Retail sales, exports, and unemployment rates are also moving the wrong directions throughout Europe.

ECB action will able to contain borrowing costs (at least in the near term), but this could do little to boost the prospects of the European economy without serious structural reforms. Even at lower interest rates, the absolute level of debt in Italy and Spain will be difficult if not outright to impossible to payoff without a debased Euro. If Spain and Italy agree to further austerity as condition of these purchases, this may drive their economies further


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