Futures positioning (long/short IMM speculative positions for noncommercial futures) has little forecasting power for the forthcoming trend of the EUR/USD. It tends to occur in tandem with underlying pair moves.

Risk reversal provides much more information for determining the direction of the pair. Risk reversal is the difference between the volatility of the call price and the put price with the same moneyness level. 25 delta risk reversal is the combination of buying 25 delta out of the money Call and selling 25 delta out of the money Put for the same maturity.

RR25 = 25Δ Call Vol - 25 Δ Put Vol

A negative figure means that put options are more expensive than same moneyness calls. In the FX world, the option strikes are fixed at 25% delta.

A one-year 25 risk reversal for the EUR/USD provides an idea of the degree of faith in the current trend of