One of the reasons given for the modest rally in European stocks today is the Chinese GDP released last night. It had been estimated the quarter's GDP would be down to 7.7%, last year it was 8.1%. The GDP quarterly number came in at 7.6%, almost as good as expected. There were other numbers released for Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales, and all the numbers came out at minor changes from the guesses.
The quarterly growth rate of 7.6% is the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2009, and down from a growth rate of 8.1% in the first quarter. Rarely do we have fundamental Chinese economic numbers that surprise the market. Is this because the Chinese observers are better guessers? Since the Chinese economy is managed, what are the chances the numbers are, shall we say, massaged?
Accurately measuring activity in a country as large
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